Market Conditions – As the traditional peak shipping season has passed, importers will closely monitor trade negotiations and inventory levels as we move through the fourth quarter. If volumes continue to decline, we expect to see more blank sailings and temporary service suspensions. According to multiple sources, import volumes from China fell 23% in September, while total U.S. imports were down 8.4% year-over-year. Additional volume declines are likely in October, which could prompt further announcements on blank sailings or temporary service suspensions —particularly on China service routes—as tensions between the U.S. and China escalate. Current freight rates on the Transpacific trade remain below compensatory levels for ocean carriers, suggesting short-term rate increases are likely even as market conditions remain challenging.
Market Rates – Freight rates dropped significantly in September and are expected to stay steady through October 14. Current levels remain below what is sustainable for ocean carriers. Coming out of Golden Week, carriers have announced a $1,000 per 40-foot container general rate increase effective October 15 across all sub-trade lanes. If implemented successfully, this move would bring short and long-term rates more in line on the Transpacific import trade. As demand cools after the holiday, how carriers manage capacity will drive short-term rate trends through the rest of 2025. We expect rates to gradually ease again after the October 15 increase, as capacity continues to outpace demand.
Trump Threatens New November 1st 100% Tariff on Chinese Imports – The announcement came shortly after China introduced new restrictions on rare earth minerals, requiring foreign companies to get special approval before shipping these materials out of the country. Beijing also added new permitting rules for technology used in mining, smelting, and recycling rare earths, saying any exports tied to military use would be denied. President Trump responded on his social media platform, saying the move essentially allows China to hold the world “captive.” In turn, the U.S. government announced a 100% tariff increase effective November 1, escalating tensions between the two nations. Both leaders are expected to meet later this month at the APEC forum in South Korea to discuss the growing trade dispute.
China Imports Fall in September – Imports from China fell sharply in September—down roughly 23% year over year and 12.3% from August, according to Datamyne import statistics. The decline was largely driven by retailers front-loading shipments earlier in the year amid growing tariff concerns. Despite the drop, total 2025 import volumes are still expected to surpass 2024 levels, supported by resilient consumer spending. Retail prices have remained only modestly higher, as many importers continue to draw from pre-tariff inventories that help offset rising costs. China was not alone in seeing softer trade flows—combined imports from other major sourcing regions also fell 9.4% in September. We expect import volumes to continue trending downward through the fourth quarter as the market closely watches ongoing trade negotiations between China and the U.S. government.
China Changes Shipping Laws – The amendment follows the USTR’s new fees on China-owned or operated vessels calling at U.S. ports, which took effect on October 14. In response, China has introduced a retaliatory policy that could allow it to impose similar fees on vessels from any country it believes is targeting its shipping operations. The language of the policy is broad, creating uncertainty for global ocean carriers—not just U.S.-flag operators. This move is expected to become a key point in the ongoing trade negotiations between the two governments, especially with the current tariff extensions set to expire on November 10.
Suez Canal Vessel Transits by 2026 Shipping Season? The pending ceasefire agreement — tied to the release of hostages and the planned withdrawal of Israeli troops — has sparked renewed optimism among Suez Canal Authorities about the potential return of ocean carriers in the near future. However, the pace of recovery will largely depend on future announcements and assurances from Houthi leaders to the global shipping community. Even with a lasting ceasefire, analysts expect carriers to restore capacity through the Canal gradually, with a full return of services likely to take several months.
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