Market Conditions – A brief “calm before the blanks” is expected on the Transpacific as ocean carriers prepare to remove capacity following Lunar New Year, when volumes typically decline during the holiday period. With Lunar New Year falling later February 17th, vessel utilization is expected to remain elevated through January. Freight rates are also likely to rise during this period as carriers take advantage of the seasonal uptick in volumes. Meanwhile, U.S. ports and rail terminals continue to operate normally, with minimal congestion and few disruptions reported at key gateways nationwide.
Market Rates – The carriers’ December 15th ocean freight rate increase was successfully implemented and has remained relatively stable over the past two weeks as they prepare for another increase on January 1st. Ocean carriers have announced a four-digit general rate increase effective January 1st , which, if fully realized, would push short-term market rates approximately 35–45% above fixed-rate contracts signed in May 2025. The widening gap between long-term contract rates and the spot market will be closely watched after Lunar New Year as negotiations begin for new 2026–2027 contracts. While several carriers have filed significant tariff rate increases for February 1st, it is far too early to speculate on February pricing—market conditions continue to evolve one bi-weekly rate change at a time.
Suez Canal Return in 2026 – The international shipping community will be closely watching announcements from several ocean carriers—particularly CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag-Lloyd—as they begin a gradual return of services through the Suez Canal. CMA CGM has publicly stated its intention to route its INDAMEX service through the Suez starting in January, with plans to fully restore the service by the second quarter of 2026. However, any return to the Suez remains highly contingent on regional security, as deteriorating Houthi sentiment tied to broader Middle East geopolitics could quickly alter routing decisions. In a related development, Maersk announced that its disruption surcharge for Red Sea sailings on the India–U.S. trade is being reduced or temporarily removed, signaling cautious optimism among carriers preparing for a potential return to the Suez in 2026.
Post Lunar New Year Blank Sailings – A significant reduction in capacity following Lunar New Year is likely, with the Gemini Cooperation already announcing multiple blank sailings to both U.S. West and East Coast ports. Similar announcements from other alliances are expected in the near term. These blank sailings may disrupt lead times, depending on how much capacity is removed from specific sub-trades and port pairs. Time-sensitive shipments are particularly at risk, especially cargo originating from locations that depend on a limited number of direct sailings. In those cases, freight may be forced onto less reliable transshipment services to complete the final leg of the voyage. Ocean carriers are expected to manage capacity tightly post-Lunar New Year as long-term contract negotiations remain underway.
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