Transpacific Capacity Surge and Port of LA Volume Slide Signal a Market Under Pressure

There are conflicting signals coming from the freight market. But it’s hard to overlook the fundamental theme: supply is growing while demand is decreasing. On the transpacific, carriers are adding capacity even though volumes and rates continue to decline. At the Port of Los Angeles, January throughput fell sharply after last year’s tariff-driven surge. The air cargo market is steadier. But the traditional Lunar New Year spike has been muted. Meanwhile, consolidation is reshaping competition in trade lanes, and Washington is advancing a maritime revival plan that could materially alter cost structures at U.S. ports.

In this news roundup, we break down the latest shifts across the freight world and what they may signal for the months ahead.

Capacity Builds as Volumes Slide, Setting Stage for Transpacific Rate War

It is becoming more difficult to avoid a price war in transpacific trade. Linerlytica reported that January’s volumes dropped 7.5% year over year to just over 150,000 TEUs as U.S. tariffs and earlier front-loading continue to impact demand. As of now, cargo demand is expected to remain low through 2026, even during the busiest months of June through September.

Already, freight rates are decreasing. According to Drewry’s World Container Index, as of February 12, Shanghai-U.S. West Coast and East Coast rates decreased 1% week over week to $2,214 and $2,800 per forty-foot container, respectively. But capacity continues to increase. The Premier Alliance and Wan Hai are adding about 12,000 TEUs per week through two new Far East-USWC services launching in April and May, bringing the total transpacific supply to about 5.46 million TEUs.

Port of Los Angeles Volumes Drop 12% as Tariff Hangover Lingers

The Port of Los Angeles handled 812,000 TEUs in January, down 12% year over year. The slowdown mirrors weaker transpacific demand following a late 2025 peak season, when importers rushed cargo ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff deadlines. Loaded imports totaled 421,594 TEUs, a 13% year-over-year decline. Exports slipped 8% to 104,297 TEUs. And even empty containers, often a signal of future inbound activity, fell 12% to 286,110 units.

Port Executive Director Gene Seroka said inventories remain slightly elevated after last year’s cargo surge, leading to a more cautious restocking pace. He added that purchase orders placed three months in advance for shipments to Asia appear stable, suggesting some underlying consumer resilience.

Strong January Demand Mutes Lunar New Year Airfreight Spike

Solid January demand from China to Europe and from Southeast Asia and Taiwan to the U.S. flattened the typical holiday spike. With Lunar New Year beginning February 17, analysts expected only a gradual rise in volumes and rates before factory closures. Strong January volumes were reported from inland Chinese hubs, including routes from Chongqing, Chengdu, and Zhengzhou, to Europe. At the same time, Asia-U.S. airfreight capacity is down year over year, although Vietnam-U.S. lanes continue to expand as the U.S. tariff policy shifts sourcing patterns.

Hapag-Lloyd’s $4.2B Zim Deal Reshapes Market Share on Major Trade Lanes

Hapag-Lloyd’s planned $4.2 billion acquisition of Zim Integrated Shipping Services would materially shift its standing across major corridors. For starters, it would lift Hapag-Lloyd’s transatlantic volume share from 24% to 27%. That places it just behind MSC’s 29%. On the transpacific, the share would jump from 7% to 12%, matching Ocean Network Express and bringing Hapag-Lloyd much closer to MSC’s 13%. Gains are also projected in Asia (9%-11%), Asia-Latin America (11%-14%), and intra-Europe (2%-7%). Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen described the Atlantic and Pacific portfolios as particularly attractive, noting that combining them would create a stronger position in both trades.

White House Floats Cargo Fees to Fund U.S. Maritime Revival

The U.S. administration has introduced a Maritime Action Plan to reverse decades of decline in commercial shipbuilding. A core proposal would impose fees on cargo arriving at U.S. ports aboard foreign-built vessels. The plan estimates such fees could raise between $66 billion and $1.5 trillion over 10 years. However, the implementation details remain unclear.

Other measures include establishing maritime prosperity zones to attract private capital and creating a Maritime Security Trust Fund to finance shipbuilding and workforce programs. Elements of the SHIPS for America Act envision a 250-vessel, mostly U.S.-built strategic fleet.

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