Market Conditions – The lack of blank sailings continued to pressure freight rates downward through November, and that trend appears unlikely to change before year-end. Port and rail congestion remain mostly manageable, with the key exception of Vancouver, where container dwell times are still averaging 5–7 days—an ongoing challenge familiar to the import community. Several media outlets are projecting soft import volumes relative to available capacity on the Transpacific trade through the first quarter, which seems reasonable. At the same time, uncertainty around tariffs has kept inventories for certain consumer products much leaner, potentially increasing significant reliance on speed-to-market services to meet demand during this period. Regardless of broader market conditions, shippers should anticipate continued volatility as we move into the long-term contract negotiation season.
Market Rates – Short-term rates briefly ticked up on December 1st as ocean carriers implemented a GRI aimed more at slowing the rate decline than establishing a sustainable increase. Since then, market rates have fallen back to November levels—and even lower on some lanes—through December 14. The “rinse-and-repeat” pattern of general rate increases is expected to continue, with two more GRI attempts currently in play over the next 30 days. The next is scheduled for December 15th, followed by another on January 1st. Given the lack of market momentum, the December 15th increase appears unlikely to hold, but with Lunar New Year approaching, a January 1st GRI has a better chance of sticking for at least a few weeks. Time will tell.
Global Container Capacity Passes 33M TEU – New container ship deliveries are expected to ease in 2026 after two years of record capacity growth. This slowdown should be temporary, with the orderbook ramping up again in 2027–28. Even so, there is already ample global capacity on the water, and once conditions allow vessels to resume routing through the Suez Canal, even more space will return to the market. This abundance of capacity will require sustained rate discipline from ocean carriers, something the market has not seen in a long time, if ever, especially given the shifting landscape of long-term sourcing.
Following The Freight – As sourcing shifts continue in response to geopolitical policies, ocean carriers are adjusting capacity just as they have for the past three decades. Carriers are adding more capacity into South Asia—for example, Premier Alliance has dropped Xiamen and added a direct call from Cai Mep, Vietnam to the U.S. East Coast, while MSC has announced improved transit times from Cambodia to the U.S. West Coast via Busan, Korea. With longer production and transit lead times emerging across South Asia, importers are evaluating every option to shorten ocean transit times. As 2026 service pro formas are released this spring, Laufer Group will publish our 2026 service guide shortly thereafter. As always, please contact your local account manager for more details.
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