Market Conditions – As noted in our January update, blank sailings have taken center stage during the Lunar New Year, leading to increased rollovers and renewed port congestion—particularly at ports handling transshipment cargo. The spike in canceled sailings is expected to create service reliability issues into early March, until capacity stabilizes with the rollout of new 2026–27 pro forma services. Carriers are also likely to implement freight rate increases on March 1st and March 15th as long-term contract negotiations get underway and current short-term spot rates dip below fixed-rate levels across most sub-trades.
Market Rates – Freight rates have been under downward pressure since early January when ocean carriers implemented short-term rate increases in anticipation of the Lunar New Year cargo rush. By early February, spot rates had settled back near long-term contract levels and are expected to remain relatively stable through March 1st. Ocean carriers have announced planned general rate increases (GRIs) of $800–$1,000 per container effective March 1; however, we expect these increases to face strong resistance as blank sailings ease and capacity returns to more typical seasonal levels. Looking ahead, demand alone is unlikely to push rates meaningfully higher into the 2026 shipping season, with geopolitical developments and carrier capacity management likely to play a more decisive role.
Lunar New Year Rollovers – The current rollover pool on the transpacific trade is unusually high, driven by ocean carriers’ aggressive capacity management at the start of the 2026 shipping season. Carriers often create artificial roll pools ahead of the holiday period to help ensure freight moves on subsequent vessels. However, the sharp drop in new bookings in the second half of January and early February led to an increase in blank sailings, which is now resulting in longer dwell times in Asia, particularly for shipments requiring transshipment. While a one-week delay is typical around the Lunar New Year, we are seeing delays of 7–14 days in some cases, as bookings were rolled to vessels that were later blanked. We expect blank sailings to continue into March as carriers closely monitor booking forecasts and adjust capacity accordingly.
2026 Service Announcements – Two of the three major carrier alliances have released their 2026 pro forma service schedules. As expected, both are adding capacity in the South Asia market, introducing additional direct Haiphong–U.S. East Coast calls, increasing direct Thailand calls, and reshuffling select China services. Laufer Group will be releasing our 2026 Service Guide in the coming weeks, outlining these market changes in detail. Please contact your account executive for more information.
Suez Canal Transits – Services transiting the canal are gradually returning, with Maersk’s India–U.S. service now fully transitioned on both legs of the rotation. However, the significant U.S. military buildup in the Middle East has the market on edge. Ocean carriers are closely monitoring the situation and are prepared to reroute vessels around Africa if conditions deteriorate. In the near term, services that resume transiting the Suez will benefit from lower operating costs and transit times shortened by more than a week—a meaningful improvement given ongoing production lead-time pressures in India.
Please check out laufer.com for more market Insights.