Insights

As widely reported in the press, big box and major wholesaler forecasts are well off earlier projections with market rates tumbling on most sub-trades since June in response. The lower costs on ocean freight are welcomed news to the market, however accessorial operational costs remain a major hurdle with no relief expected through the remainder of the year. Though sliding, import volumes, remain approximately 15% higher than pre-covid levels and most expect it will take several more months before domestic bottlenecks achieve noticeable improvements. We anticipate August and September import volumes to continue to reflect a downward trend. As we move through the remainder of Q3 and into Q4, it will be interesting to see how much the market has retracted from the surge that hit our shores earlier this year.

The TPEB market continues to show mixed signals. On one hand, capacity remains readily available on all sub-trades, providing some optimism that our industry has turned the corner with easier times ahead. At the same time many industry stakeholders are reporting deteriorating supply chain fluidity at East Coast ports and major rail hubs across the nation. Ocean terminals in Southern California are seeing rail dwell times spike as fewer trains are departing due to the inland ramp congestion. The number of vessels dwelling off New York and Savannah are at historic levels.

The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) went into effect on June 21st. This new law initiates a total ban on imports from the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China (XUAR); establishing a rebuttable presumption that all materials and goods from the region are produced with forced labor. UFLPA expands upon the previously established Withhold Release Orders (WROs) placed on specific commodities and manufacturers showed indicators of forced labor in their processes.