Fragile Peak Season Outlook Clashes With Strong Cargo Volumes

Cargo volumes at major U.S. ports are healthy, Asia factories are producing at full tilt, and retailers are preparing for back-to-school and holiday demand. But beneath those steady flows is a market impacted by weak consumer confidence, higher fuel costs, and uncertainty about trade policy.

Meanwhile, the competitive balance in logistics could be unraveling. Amazon has opened its internal freight, warehousing, and parcel delivery network to outside businesses. U.S. importers are beginning to claw back billions in tariff refunds after the Supreme Court struck down several trade measures earlier this year.

The industry is clearly adjusting to new competitive pressure and slower demand growth. Continue reading to find out all about it.

The latest Global Port Tracker from Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation predicts July imports at 2.2 million TEUs, down nearly 8% year over year. August imports are forecast to fall by 5.5%, while September volumes are seen dipping by 1.3% — a rare pattern for what is typically one of the busiest shipping periods of the year.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index recently sank to a record low of 48.2 from 49.8 in April. But ocean freight carriers are planning to deploy more eastbound transpacific capacity between May and July than they did during that period last year. Carriers seem to be expecting some cargo recovery.

The Port of Los Angeles processed 890,861 TEUs in April, a 5.7% increase year over year, and the second-best April in the port’s history. In the first four months of 2026, the port handled 3.28 million TEUs, slightly better than its five-year average but lower than the import boom in 2025, when companies rushed cargo to avoid tariff changes.

Loaded imports were 459,825 TEUs in April, a 5% year-over-year increase and a 21% increase month over month. Empty container volumes were also up 10% as carriers repositioned equipment for transpacific trade.

“Retailers and manufacturers are moving product despite uncertainty around tariffs and fuel costs,” said Gene Seroka, the port’s executive director. He added that factories in Asia are still running at full capacity and early holiday inventory flows are already building. That said, he cautioned that higher diesel prices could ultimately raise trucking costs throughout the supply chain.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection has already processed $35.46 billion in refunds associated with invalidated tariffs through its newly launched CAPE refund portal. CBP had previously estimated that importers paid some $166 billion in tariffs that the Supreme Court later struck down. Currently, some have received refunds, while others are awaiting them.

According to a recent court filing, more than 8 million liquidated or reliquidated entries have passed validation and refund processing. However, trade specialists say the refund process is also revealing wider compliance risks among importers with inconsistent trade records or poor documentation practices.

Ocean freight rates on the transpacific route are rising amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is tightening fuel and capacity conditions ahead of the peak shipping season. Daily spot rates are still rising following recent carrier price increases. Currently, spot pricing is approximately $2,800 per FEU to the West Coast and $4,300 per FEU to the East Coast.

Early signs from Levine suggest peak-season demand may already be underway, although unusual freight patterns caused by tariff-driven front-loading have distorted normal comparisons. The SONAR Ocean Volume Index has been climbing steadily since February 28, but the National Retail Federation still expects peak season to start in July. If demand continues to improve and carriers continue to restrict capacity, freight rates could go even higher in the second half of the year, analysts warn.

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