Shipping Shockwaves and a Volatile Supply Chain Cycle

Global supply chains are being pulled in multiple directions simultaneously. On the one hand, tensions in the Middle East are changing trade patterns and adding more uncertainty to ocean shipping. On the other hand, financial pressures, such as rising bond yields and shifting trade policies, seem to be quietly affecting how far businesses and governments are willing to go.

Meanwhile, the ground reality is rapidly changing. The truckload markets in the U.S. have tightened sooner than many expected. Demand for warehouses, which seemed low not long ago, is rising again. And changes in trucking regulations could alter the picture of capacity as freight demand picks up. Continue reading to find out more about what is impacting the freight market today.

Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz trapped ships and stopped the flow of tankers, but the bigger threat might be financial. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.40% and is expected to rise to 4.60%. Similar numbers forced a pullback on U.S. tariffs in the past, and a repeat could limit policy moves again.

Trade patterns are shifting. More and more U.S. goods are being shipped through Mexico and Canada, while Europe is having trouble with a large number of Chinese goods entering. Carriers are adjusting as well. MSC is getting into crude shipping through a stake in Sinikor, Maersk is going deeper into last-mile delivery, and Hapag-Lloyd’s $4.2 billion purchase of Zim points to more consolidation on the way.

Cosco warned that the conflict in the Middle East would worsen global supply chain disruptions by accelerating regionalization and nearshoring, while making shipping markets more volatile. The company believes container shipping will remain highly uncertain through 2026, as the global economy remains weak and the operating environment remains fragile.

There are some offsets. Emerging markets, especially Southeast Asia and Latin America, are seeing stronger demand thanks to trade agreements. However, there may be more supply than demand. Cargo volumes are expected to rise by about 2.5%, while the fleet is expected to grow by 3.8%, potentially leading to lower freight rates.

Cosco’s net profit dropped 38% to $4.3 billion in 2025, with a big drop in the fourth quarter — possible proof that the company is already under financial pressure.

Truckload conditions in the U.S. worsened faster than most expected. Dry van spot rates reached $2.89 per mile, the highest level since 2022. A 12 cent rise in just one week shows it’s real, not just a short-lived spike. It looks like the change is due to a combination of demand returning and supply remaining limited.

Industrial freight is picking up, and carrier exits over the past two years have left fewer trucks available. Tender rejection rates are around 13–14% nationally and over 18% in the Midwest. This shows that carriers are becoming picky again. Seasonal demand is making things harder, though. Shipments of produce, construction materials, drinks, and retail goods are all rising simultaneously. At the same time, West Coast imports are rebounding after a delayed Lunar New Year, pulling trucks toward longer, higher-paying routes.

After a slow period, demand for large warehouses in the U.S. is picking up again. Last year, 146 leases were signed for buildings with more than 500,000 square feet, which is a 31% increase and the most activity since 2022.

It looks like several factors are driving the change. Manufacturers are moving production closer to home, third-party logistics companies are growing to meet the needs of outsourced fulfillment, and suppliers linked to data center buildouts are taking up space. As contracts come up for renewal, some companies are also looking back at lease choices they made during the pandemic.

A proposed U.S. bill affecting non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses is moving forward. Lawmakers have approved Dalilah’s Law in committee and sent it to the full House for consideration.

The law could change trucking capacity. Although current federal rules could revoke the licenses of up to 194,000 drivers over five years, the new bill would immediately revoke the licenses of drivers who don’t meet stricter residency requirements.

Supporters say the change makes roads safer and fills in gaps in the standards for who can drive. Opponents, on the other hand, say it could sideline drivers who follow the law and make the freight market harder at a time when it is already struggling.

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