Transpacific Rates Surge as USMCA Talks Move Into 2027

Ocean carriers are raising rates as peak season demand arrives early. North American trade negotiators are working to keep USMCA alive, but the next chapter is unwritten. Holiday freight is already moving across the docks in Long Beach as retailers hedge inventory plans against higher costs and policy risk.

There’s also a trail of cash through customs and trucking. CBP is expanding refund eligibility for importers affected by invalidated tariff rules. The truck freight market appears to be repricing on the supply side. Volumes aren’t roaring back, but freight costs are, which doesn’t bode well for shippers. Budgets are already feeling the squeeze from changes in ocean, truckload, LTL, and trade policy.

Pressure in container shipping is moving from Middle East disruption to rate swings, schedule protection, and changes to carrier networks. Freightos data shows Asia-U.S. West Coast rates up 8% to $6,175 per FEU and Asia-U.S. East Coast rates up 8% to $7,998 per FEU. Transpacific West Coast rates have surged 120% since mid-May, while East Coast rates have increased 85%. The early peak season has forced carriers to shift capacity from smaller lanes to east-west trades, lifting prices elsewhere as well.

Congestion in South Asia, the Far East, and Europe is constraining capacity. The pull-forward might fade in July, but carrier rate hikes will test how much pricing power is left.

The USMCA is slated to remain in effect until at least 2036. However, the U.S., Mexico, and Canada have another deadline of July 1, 2027, to review the agreement. In addition, annual talks will be conducted until the USMCA is renewed or expires.

Canada is seeking tariff-free access and relief for steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber, while Mexico wants stronger enforcement and execution.

The Port of Long Beach handled 842,030 TEUs in May, a 31.7% increase from May 2025 and the port’s third-best May ever. Imports rose 40% to 418,851 TEUs, exports were up 32.9% to 109,168 TEUs, and empty containers increased 21.8% to 314,012 TEUs, a sign that more inbound freight is on the way. Long Beach handled 4,050,247 TEUs through May, matching the record pace set in 2025.

July manufacturer price hikes, tariff worries, geopolitical risk, and fuel costs are pushing the peak season earlier, with heavier volumes expected in July and August. Space is tightening due to carrier adjustments, and, as previously noted, transpacific rates are on the rise.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection has updated its CAPE refund portal to accept more tariff entries that the Supreme Court struck down earlier this year. For shipment entries pending final duty reconciliation, if unliquidated or liquidated within 80 days of the portal filing date, importers and brokers may now file.

According to the CBP, the first phase will see some $28.7 billion in refunds. A second phase, possibly in late July, will finally add liquidated entries totaling $11.4 billion. The update comes as the Justice Department appeals the refund order to the Federal Circuit.

Truck freight rates are rising even before demand is fully back, according to the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index Rates Edition. Dry van spot rates rose 31.29% year over year and 9.74% from April to $2.14 per mile in May, while contract rates increased 9% to $2.18 per mile.

Meanwhile, spot shipments dropped to 1.11 million from 1.31 million. The contract-to-spot spread narrowed from about 39 cents per mile to 11 cents per mile, leaving shippers with less budget cover.

LTL carriers also held the line on pricing, with Old Dominion and XPO reporting yield gains despite patchy shipment activity.

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