Container Trade Holds Firm as Retailers Pull Peak Season Forward

Despite war-related disruptions affecting major maritime corridors, ocean volumes have not been impacted. Meanwhile, U.S. retailers are pulling forward holiday freight, but industry reports warn the import surge may cool off quickly. Transportation prices are red hot, warehouse and inventory costs are rising, and air cargo e-commerce is entering a stricter era with customs.

The current freight landscape mirrors a market under pressure, as cargo is still moving but at a higher cost and with less margin for error.

Global container traffic was unchanged in April even as the war in Iran disrupted routes from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean. Container Trade Statistics reported that 16.2 million TEUs were registered for the month, up 4% from April 2025 and 1.6% above March. Year-to-date volumes were ahead of 2025 by 5%.

Cargo is behaving much like water, shifting to alternative routes when typical corridors become congested. The greater strain showed in pricing. The CTS Global Price Index climbed to 89 points from 79, its biggest increase since June 2024, when Red Sea diversions sucked capacity out of the market. North America and the Indian Subcontinent/Middle East were weaker areas. Sub-Saharan Africa was a standout with exports up 10% and imports up 15% year to date.

U.S. retailers now anticipate a short, early peak shipping season. June imports are forecast at 2.25 million TEUs, up from 2.13 million TEUs in the last Global Port Tracker report and 14.3% higher than June 2022. Importers are bringing in fall and holiday goods earlier to get ahead of new tariffs and possible fuel price increases.

The spike should continue into July before easing as inflation and consumer uncertainty slow demand. Imports are expected to fall 8.4% to 2.19 million TEUs in July, with August forecast at 2.12 million TEUs, down 8.6%.

For now, the pull forward is already putting pressure on rates. Prices soared to $5,000 per FEU on the West Coast, up nearly 80% in just one month.

Transportation costs climbed in May as the Logistics Managers’ Index hit an all-time high of 96, just shy of the index’s 100-point cap. The report cited the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, higher fuel costs, rising truckload rates, and enforcement actions that push noncompliant drivers out of the market as reasons for the jump.

Capacity remained tight. Transportation capacity remained in contraction at 31.7, while utilization remained high at 69.5. Manufacturers and wholesalers pulled inventory forward to avoid shortages, and the upstream companies felt the pinch more acutely. The broader LMI edged down to 69.5, the second-highest number since March 2022. Aggregate logistics costs rose to 250.9, the fastest increase since that month.

Europe is about to enter a more difficult customs phase for e-commerce air cargo as the €150 duty-free de minimis threshold is removed on July 1. The new rule will impose a temporary €3 customs duty per item on small parcels entering the EU from outside the bloc, before standard tariff rates take effect in July 2028.

That will mean more cost and process burden, but also better shipment visibility for customs officials. For shippers handling many parcels, clean data is now a core part of keeping freight moving.

U.S. Bank’s Q1 2026 Freight Payment Index shows a split freight market: volumes were flat, but costs jumped for shippers. The National Spend Index increased 12.9% from Q4 2025 and 21.8% year over year, the largest quarterly increase since late 2020.

Volumes declined 0.3% quarter over quarter and increased just 0.6% from last year. That pressure was due to tight carrier supply and diesel shortages. The average fuel price went from $3.47 a gallon to $5.40 by the end of the quarter. DAT estimated Q1 fuel costs at 51 cents per mile, while spot rates averaged $2.56 per mile, up 11.9% from Q4.

The Midwest posted the strongest gains in shipments and spending, helped by auto production, defense manufacturing, and heavy-duty truck orders.

At Laufer, we leverage technology solutions such as PeerPLUS (a platform that tracks shipment milestones, flags exceptions, and provides logistics teams with the information they need to make decisions) and our expertise to deliver a nirvana-like level of visibility, control, and flexibility across the supply chain.

Our ideology at Laufer is simple. We help you identify your challenges and opportunities and tailor technology and practical solutions designed to improve your business throughout your journey with us. Laufer is ready to support your supply chain— contact us today to get started.