Record Container Volumes Meet Peaking Rates

While global container shipping continued to stay strong in September, ocean rates do finally show signs of topping out, but shippers shouldn’t expect relief anytime soon. Airfreight buyers are rewriting how they contract capacity, importers are starting to see real money come back from invalidated tariffs, and a major brokerage merger is reshaping the provider landscape. For shippers heading into the fourth quarter, the common thread is a market that stays expensive and unpredictable even as the worst spikes fade.

Global container shipping reached a record 17.46 million TEUs in August, according to Container Trades Statistics, beating July’s record of about 17.3 million TEUs. Volumes rose 3.7% from August 2025, and transpacific trade is up 5% this year after tariff uncertainty and typhoon congestion held cargo back earlier.

The CTS Global Price Index rose to 117, its highest level since July 2024 and 44% above August 2025. CTS also warned that slowing month-to-month growth “could signal a moderation in demand.” It builds on the picture we laid out in our look at transpacific rates hitting multiyear highs as port congestion disrupts peak season.

Shippers are avoiding long-term fixed air capacity deals, according to Xeneta. Three-month agreements made up 60% of new contracts effective in Q3, up from 47% in Q2, while the share of 12-month contracts fell from 40% to 25% year over year.

“There remains a lot of instability and that’s making it almost impossible for shippers to make long-term capacity deals,” said Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer.

September spot rates averaged $3.10 per kilogram, up 27% year over year, with jet fuel costs elevated by the Middle East conflict. Van de Wouw added that when ocean gets this unreliable and expensive, some volume moves to air, though September data doesn’t show that shift yet. Matching the service level to the shipment seems to matter more in the freight environment of today.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection has begun processing refunds on finally liquidated entries for businesses that sued over IEEPA tariffs, which the Supreme Court invalidated in February. As of October 6, CBP had accepted 477 CAPE declarations covering 425,517 entries, and the new capability is expected to handle roughly $11.4 billion, or 6.9% of IEEPA tariffs.

Eligibility is narrow for now: only plaintiffs that submitted a valid importer of record number by July 30 can receive refunds, and CBP hasn’t said when later filers will get instructions. Across all CAPE phases, CBP has accepted for processing about $136.6 billion in potential and certified refunds, and the Justice Department’s appeal on the scope of the court’s order is still pending.

Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand believes Asia-U.S. spot rates have likely reached their post-Hormuz crisis peak. As of October 1, market-average rates were $8,346 per FEU to the West Coast and $11,523 to the East Coast, more than four times their February 28 pre-crisis levels.

Easing typhoon congestion, China’s Golden Week, and weak demand should pull rates lower, with Sand forecasting $6,000 to $7,000 per FEU for the East Coast and $4,500 to $5,500 for the West Coast over the next three months. He called that “a sizable correction, but not a collapse,” and cautioned that further geopolitical disruption could change the outlook quickly.

Volatile diesel prices are the top trucking industry issue in 2026, according to the American Transportation Research Institute’s annual survey of 3,100 industry stakeholders. Fuel prices jumped from 18th place in 2025 to first, while concern about the economy, which had led the ranking for three years, fell to sixth.

ATRI said the drop “points to cautious optimism on the part of the industry that things are improving.” First-time drivers rank fuel as their top concern, as increasing fuel prices has pressured profitability, with operating margins below 1% in truckload and refrigerated. The driver shortage climbed from 12th to fifth. Carriers are responding by buying fuel in bulk and cutting deadhead miles, and respondents said federal action to increase fuel supply and remove price volatility is the top strategy for addressing the problem.

Record volumes, rates that stay far above pre-crisis levels, shifting air contracts, and a consolidating provider market all point the same way: shippers do better with a partner that can adjust quickly than with one locked into a fixed plan. That’s the idea behind our ocean import programs, which pair space-procurement support with proactive communication as rates adjust.

When ocean schedules slip, our airfreight options protect critical orders without a long-term commitment. And as refund programs like CAPE move forward, our customs brokerage team helps importers keep entries organized and compliant. Acting early also keeps costs down, as we explain in why delayed freight decisions create costly logistics problems.

If you’re planning Q4 shipments in a market that won’t sit still, let’s talk about your lanes.