Capacity Tightens Across Trucking, Ocean as Peak Season Demand Builds

Shippers in the back half of 2026 are facing a market tightening on nearly every front. Truckload capacity is contracting at one of the fastest rates on record, manufacturing output keeps climbing, and transpacific ocean rates that seemed to be cooling in July have snapped back above $7,000 per FEU. The signals point to the same conclusion: capacity is getting scarcer, costs are rising, and shippers without a plan for volatility will feel it in the months ahead.

The Logistics Managers’ Index reported that transportation capacity contracted at the second-fastest rate in the index’s 10-year history in July, falling to 28.4. Utilization dropped to 65, and pricing growth eased to 86.9, though both remain historically elevated. Werner Enterprises posted a 28% year-over-year jump in revenue per truck by restructuring its fleet, while Schneider National locked in double-digit rate increases on renewals. Logistics managers expect the squeeze to continue over the next year — a dynamic we tracked in our look at a fragile peak season colliding with strong cargo volumes, and July’s numbers confirm the pressure hasn't let up.

U.S. manufacturing expanded for a seventh straight month in July, with the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index climbing to 55.6%. New orders and production both rose, with production hitting its highest mark since November 2021 and employment posting its first expansion in 33 months. “We have a really strong report this month,” said Susan Spence, chair of ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. Growth like this typically flows straight into freight volumes, adding demand to an already tight network.

Bob Costello, chief economist at the American Trucking Associations, opined that truck capacity continues to tighten after several years of excess supply. This tightening of capacity shows up directly in shipper budgets. Q2 spending on truckload freight rose 28.1% year over year even as shipment volumes fell 2.8%, and fuel costs jumped 47.1% from Q1. Spot rates climbed to $3.02 per mile and contract rates to $3.06, narrowing the spot-to-contract gap to just 4 cents from 39 cents a year earlier — a sign carriers have far less incentive to discount.

Ocean rates are telling a similarly uneven story. Asia-to-U.S. West Coast pricing eased from a July peak above $7,500 per FEU to roughly $6,000, only to rebound past $7,000 again on August 1, while East Coast rates held steady near $9,012. Freightos analyst Judah Levine noted that while rates “have eased or at least leveled off,” strong demand paired with the early August jump suggests peak season strength “may extend longer than anticipated.” We broke down this pattern in our look at container trade holding firm as retailers pull peak season forward, which lines up with what we flagged around transpacific rates surging as USMCA talks move into 2027.

The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index adds context on why costs keep rising even where volumes aren’t. Its Q2 shipment index fell 2.8% year over year, while the spend index rose 28.1%, with performance varying sharply by region. Capacity conditions can have a significant impact on freight costs, resulting in fleet exits after a three-year freight recession and federal safety initiatives limiting driver availability. Considering capacity tightness today is a supply-side pull and not a demand-side constraint, market conditions would be harder to predict. Nonetheless, carriers with available capacity are gaining leverage, thanks to shrinking capacity.

Every one of these reports points to the same shift: capacity is harder to secure, and the shippers who feel it least are the ones with real visibility and a plan before the market moves. That’s the gap Laufer is built to close. Our ocean import programs are built around forecast sharing and space procurement support, so clients aren’t caught flat-footed by swings like the ones hitting transpacific lanes now. When ocean isn’t fast enough, our airfreight options protect service levels without uncontrolled cost. And across every mode, our PeerPLUS technology platform gives lean logistics teams the booking-stage visibility to catch exceptions early and decide with data, not guesswork.

Markets like this reward shippers who plan ahead of volatility instead of reacting to it. If your team is feeling the squeeze from tighter capacity or rising rates, let’s talk about your lanes.